PrepRung

JEE Advanced 2020 Paper 2 · Mathematics · Probability · hard

A coin with P(head)=3/5 is tossed repeatedly until the pattern head, tail, head (HTH) appears for the first time as three consecutive tosses. Find…

Numerical answer

A coin with P(head)=35P(\text{head})=\dfrac35 is tossed repeatedly until the pattern head, tail, head (HTH) appears for the first time as three consecutive tosses. Find the expected number of tosses. Give the answer correct to two decimal places.
Show answer and solution

Answer: 8.61

Set up a Markov chain with states by progress: E0E_0 (no useful suffix), E1E_1 (last toss H), E2E_2 (last two tosses HT). With p=35p=\frac35 and q=25q=\frac25: E0=1+pE1+qE0E_0=1+pE_1+qE_0, E1=1+pE1+qE2E_1=1+pE_1+qE_2, and E2=1+p⋅0+qE0E_2=1+p\cdot0+qE_0 because a head completes HTH while a tail returns to the start. From the first, E0=1p+E1E_0=\frac1p+E_1. From the third, E2=1+qE0E_2=1+qE_0. Putting into the second: qE1=1+qE2qE_1=1+qE_2, so E1=1q+E2=1q+1+qE0E_1=\frac1q+E_2=\frac1q+1+qE_0. Combine: E0=1p+1q+1+qE0E_0=\frac1p+\frac1q+1+qE_0, giving E0=1/p+1/q+11−q=1/p+1/q+1pE_0=\dfrac{1/p+1/q+1}{1-q}=\dfrac{1/p+1/q+1}{p}, which simplifies to 1p2q+1p=12518+53≈8.6111\frac{1}{p^2q}+\frac1p=\frac{125}{18}+\frac53\approx8.6111, i.e. 8.618.61. The same result follows from the autocorrelation formula: the pattern HTH overlaps itself at lengths 1 and 3, so the expected time is the sum of the reciprocals of the probabilities of those prefixes, namely 1p2q+1p\frac{1}{p^2q}+\frac1p, which equals 8.618.61 after rounding.
Report a mistake

Original question written in the JEE Advanced 2020 Paper 2 pattern and checked twice for the correct answer. Not an official question paper. How we write and check questions · Corrections policy · Report a mistake