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JEE Advanced 2025 Paper 1 · Mathematics · Probability · medium

A fair die is rolled once and shows the number n. Then n fair coins are tossed. Given that exactly two heads appear, the probability that n was a…

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A fair die is rolled once and shows the number nn. Then nn fair coins are tossed. Given that exactly two heads appear, the probability that nn was a prime number is
  1. A. 532\dfrac{5}{32}
  2. B. 511\dfrac{5}{11}
  3. C. 1333\dfrac{13}{33}
  4. D. 2033\dfrac{20}{33}
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Answer: (D) 2033\dfrac{20}{33}

Let HH be the event of exactly two heads. P(H∣n)=(n2)/2nP(H\mid n)=\binom{n}{2}/2^{n}, and each nn has prior 1/61/6. Exactly two heads has probability 00 for n=1n=1, and for n=2,…,6n=2,\dots,6 it is 14, 38, 38, 516, 1564\frac14,\ \frac38,\ \frac38,\ \frac{5}{16},\ \frac{15}{64} (from (n2)/2n\binom n2/2^n). Multiplying by 16\frac16: the weights are 124,116,116,596,5128\frac1{24},\frac1{16},\frac1{16},\frac5{96},\frac5{128} for n=2,…,6n=2,\dots,6. Their total is P(H)=33128P(H)=\frac{33}{128}. The primes 2,3,52,3,5 contribute 124+116+596=532\frac1{24}+\frac1{16}+\frac5{96}=\frac{5}{32}. By Bayes' theorem the required probability is 5/3233/128=2033\frac{5/32}{33/128}=\frac{20}{33}. The option 532\frac{5}{32} is the joint probability, not the conditional one, and 511\frac{5}{11} and 1333\frac{13}{33} come from mishandling the weights of n=4n=4 and n=6n=6. Exact fraction arithmetic gives 20/3320/33.
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