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JEE Advanced 2016 Paper 1 · Mathematics · Probability · hard

A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until the three consecutive outcomes head, tail, tail (in this order) appear for the first time. The expected number…

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A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until the three consecutive outcomes head, tail, tail (in this order) appear for the first time. The expected number of tosses required is
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Answer: 8

Set up a Markov chain on the useful progress. Let EE be the expected remaining tosses from the start (no progress), HH the expectation after the latest toss is a head that could begin the pattern, and HTHT after the last two tosses read head, tail. Then E=1+12H+12EE=1+\tfrac12H+\tfrac12E, H=1+12H+12HTH=1+\tfrac12H+\tfrac12HT (a head keeps us at HH, a tail moves to HTHT), and HT=1+12H+12⋅0HT=1+\tfrac12H+\tfrac12\cdot0 (a tail completes the pattern, a head returns us to HH). From the third equation HT=1+H2HT=1+\tfrac H2. Substituting into the second gives H=1+H2+12+H4H=1+\tfrac H2+\tfrac12+\tfrac H4, so H4=32\tfrac H4=\tfrac32 and H=6H=6. Then E=2+H=8E=2+H=8.
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