Single correct option
Bag contains red and black balls and bag contains red and black balls. A fair die is thrown; if the number is or a bag is chosen, otherwise bag is chosen. Two balls are then drawn without replacement from the chosen bag. Given that the two balls drawn are of the same colour, the probability that bag was chosen is
- A.
- B.
- C.
- D.
Show answer and solution
Answer: (B)
Use Bayes' theorem. , .
Same colour from : .
Same colour from : .
.
.
The value is , is the joint probability with no normalisation, and is only the likelihood . Each of these is a typical slip when the conditioning event is ignored or only partly used. The problem is solved cleanly by writing the total probability of the conditioning event first and then dividing the relevant joint probability by it.
Same colour from : .
Same colour from : .
.
.
The value is , is the joint probability with no normalisation, and is only the likelihood . Each of these is a typical slip when the conditioning event is ignored or only partly used. The problem is solved cleanly by writing the total probability of the conditioning event first and then dividing the relevant joint probability by it.
Saved on this device. Sign in or create a free account to keep it on every device.