PrepRung

JEE Advanced 2023 Paper 1 · Mathematics · Probability · medium

Bag A contains 3 red and 2 black balls and bag B contains 2 red and 4 black balls. A fair die is thrown; if the number is 1 or 2 a bag A is chosen…

Single correct option

Bag AA contains 33 red and 22 black balls and bag BB contains 22 red and 44 black balls. A fair die is thrown; if the number is 11 or 22 a bag AA is chosen, otherwise bag BB is chosen. Two balls are then drawn without replacement from the chosen bag. Given that the two balls drawn are of the same colour, the probability that bag BB was chosen is
  1. A. 310\dfrac{3}{10}
  2. B. 710\dfrac{7}{10}
  3. C. 1445\dfrac{14}{45}
  4. D. 715\dfrac{7}{15}
Show answer and solution

Answer: (B) 710\dfrac{7}{10}

Use Bayes' theorem. P(A)=13P(A)=\frac13, P(B)=23P(B)=\frac23.
Same colour from AA: (32)+(22)(52)=410=25\dfrac{\binom32+\binom22}{\binom52}=\dfrac{4}{10}=\dfrac25.
Same colour from BB: (22)+(42)(62)=715\dfrac{\binom22+\binom42}{\binom62}=\dfrac{7}{15}.
P(same)=13⋅25+23⋅715=645+1445=2045=49P(\text{same})=\frac13\cdot\frac25+\frac23\cdot\frac7{15}=\frac{6}{45}+\frac{14}{45}=\frac{20}{45}=\frac49.
P(B∣same)=14/4520/45=710P(B\mid\text{same})=\dfrac{14/45}{20/45}=\dfrac{7}{10}.
The value 310\frac3{10} is P(A∣same)P(A\mid\text{same}), 1445\frac{14}{45} is the joint probability P(B∩same)P(B\cap\text{same}) with no normalisation, and 715\frac7{15} is only the likelihood P(same∣B)P(\text{same}\mid B). Each of these is a typical slip when the conditioning event is ignored or only partly used. The problem is solved cleanly by writing the total probability of the conditioning event first and then dividing the relevant joint probability by it.
Report a mistake

Original question written in the JEE Advanced 2023 Paper 1 pattern and checked twice for the correct answer. Not an official question paper. How we write and check questions · Corrections policy · Report a mistake