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JEE Advanced 2021 Paper 1 · Mathematics · Probability · medium

JEE Advanced 2021 Paper 1 Mathematics: Paragraph 2

Two players AA and BB take turns rolling one fair die, with AA rolling first, then BB, then AA, and so on. Player AA wins immediately if AA rolls a 66. Player BB wins immediately if BB rolls a 44, 55 or 66. The game stops as soon as someone wins.

Question 1

Numerical answer

The probability that AA wins the game is ____. Give the answer correct to two decimal places.
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Answer: 0.29

In one full round both players fail with probability 56⋅12=512\dfrac56\cdot\dfrac12=\dfrac5{12}. AA wins on his own turn in round nn with probability (512)n−116\left(\dfrac5{12}\right)^{n-1}\dfrac16. Summing the geometric series, P(A wins)=1/61−5/12=1/67/12=27≈0.29P(A\text{ wins})=\dfrac{1/6}{1-5/12}=\dfrac{1/6}{7/12}=\dfrac27\approx0.29. For a consistency check, BB wins with probability (5/6)(1/2)7/12=57\dfrac{(5/6)(1/2)}{7/12}=\dfrac57, and 27+57=1\dfrac27+\dfrac57=1, so the game ends with probability one.

Question 2

Numerical answer

The expected total number of rolls made (by both players together) until the game ends is ____. Give the answer correct to two decimal places.
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Answer: 3.14

Let NN be the number of rolls. Use E[N]=∑n≥0P(N>n)E[N]=\sum_{n\ge0}P(N>n). The game certainly reaches roll 1. It reaches roll 2 if AA fails: 56\dfrac56. It reaches roll 3 if both fail: 512\dfrac5{12}. It reaches roll 4 if additionally AA fails again: 512⋅56\dfrac5{12}\cdot\dfrac56, and so on, so the probabilities come in pairs multiplied by 512\dfrac5{12} each round. Thus E[N]=(1+56)∑r≥0(512)r=11/67/12=227≈3.14E[N]=\left(1+\dfrac56\right)\sum_{r\ge0}\left(\dfrac5{12}\right)^r=\dfrac{11/6}{7/12}=\dfrac{22}{7}\approx3.14. This is the geometric-series analogue of the usual waiting-time argument.
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